106,298 seems like a very large number when used without any context, but yet the mainstream media is acting as if it is 100 million. Please forgive me as we go through some math.
The next figure to contemplate is 752,249. A much larger figure of which 106,298 is just 14.1%, again not a very high percentage.
Our next number is 2,083,979. A much larger number by far. 752,249 is 36%, while 106,298 is 5.1% of this larger figure.
The final set of numbers is 56,260, 23,420, and 21,085, which respectively is 52.9%, 22%, and 19.8% of 106,298. 2.7%, 1.1%, and 1.0% of 2,083,979.
You are probably wondering what each of this numbers represent. The 2,083,979 is the total number of registered voters in Iowa (11/20/2023). 752,249 is the reported count of registered Republicans in Iowa. 106,298 is the total reported count of votes cast in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucus. With the final counts being the votes cast for Trump, DeSantis, and Haley respectively.
Even granting a huge snowstorm and record breaking low temperatures may have affected turnout, that is still a pitifully low number of people to show up to caucus in a state used to harsh winter weather. But, not really too bad when compared to only about 180,000 votes showing up in 2020, so a little less, but in the greater scheme of things, neither counts are earth-shattering.
Yet, if one doesn’t look closely at the numbers, the mainstream media wants us to think it was a bit of a blow-out. They want us to believe Iowa voters overwhelmingly are in support of a second Trump run. What we really can see is 2.7% of Iowa voters want Trump as the candidate. Roughly the same number want almost anyone else to be the Republican candidate. I’m pretty sure that fact, that irony, has been lost on mainstream media. Sadly clicks, which equate to profit, count more than the facts or context anymore.
One news agency went so far as to say Trump had cemented his front runner status as the Republican candidate. I might argue 2.7% of voters registered voting hardly equates to “cementing” front runner status. Plus this is just one state, a small state, and a mainly white state at that. It does not represent all of the U.S.. It isn’t even a microcosm of the U.S. population. But again, media run by mainly old white men want to influence what we see to help maintain their superiority over the populace.
I hold no doubts that Trump will be the Republican nominee. In many ways this is written in as much stone as possible. The machine, even with big money lining up behind Haley over Trump and DeSantis, the Republican, nay the modern Trumpist Republican, party has already deemed Trump as the candidate. No indictment, no conviction, no misstatements, no mental state, no nothing can stop the juggernaut that is Trump and his base from that destiny.
It will also come as no surprise to me should Trump pick Haley as his running mate. That will even the tickets as being old white men at the top with women of color following their leads at the bottom. If I were a strategist, that is what I would do on the Trumpist Republican side. To do so helps the media hide behind the fantasy the parties are the same, thus they can normalize authoritarian machinations to equate Democrats with Trumpist Republicans.
Let’s come back to the percentage of turnout. Do we want figures such as 2.7% of an electorate to dictate the outcome for the entire country. Do we want only 66% of eligible U.S. voters to decide our next president when democracy itself is a stake. The margin of actual votes for Biden was only about 8% over Trump of the popular vote. We all know the margin of victory in some states was basically what those of us where I grew up would call a squeaker—Biden just squeaked by in crucial swing states.
We all know, if we are paying attention, the Trumpist Republicans have been very busy passing laws to suppress votes, been working hard to take voter certification duties away from secretaries of state, purging voter roles, and I would go so far as to gather they have, along with continuing to propagate the Big Lie, been working on how to more effectively and slyly inculcate fake electors into the mix for the 2024 election. And that isn’t even discussing the disarray and belief systems of the Trumpist Republicans in the U.S. Congress who must also certify the vote.
As Whoopi said in Ghost, “You in danger, girl.” I would change it though to say…
“We in danger.”
Sources: https://apnews.com/ap-elections-explained; https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-seeks-knockout-punch-iowa-delivers-first-verdict-republican-race-2024-01-15/; https://www.kcci.com/article/iowa-caucuses-2024-results-turnout-how-many-republicans-voted/46416117#; https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ia; https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/30/fact-check-fals-president-than-were-registered-u-s/4010087001/.
Personal Reflections of a Middle-Aged Man 